Analytics
Resolved Magic on 15 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Magic at 57.5%. Yes opened at 42% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 14 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 37% on 12 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 37% on 12 Mar 2026.
517 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 16, 6:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026, chart shows 35%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 42.0% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | 42.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ivory Ledger 752C | Heat | 100.77K |
| hugesportswhale | Heat | 70K |
| YT-JuicySlots | Heat | 20K |
| b324u | Heat | 15K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 14 at 8:00PM ET: If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nba-orl-mia-2026-03-14
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| jizzbucket57 | Heat | 13K |
| IAmHomelessNow | Heat | 10K |
| terminalline - 20450 | Heat | 8.41K |
| NebulaBite | Heat | 5.93K |
| lavarball | Heat | 5.11K |
| one8tyfive | Heat | 4.37K |
