Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 31 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50% on 31 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 6% on 2 Nov 2025. $31.3K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 31 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 622.68 |
| Sieckojn | Yes | 264.45 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 173 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on September 10. For more information see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between September 11 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by-september-30
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 119 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 116 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 109 |
| zero.insider | Yes | 108.49 |
| Misty Comet 77FF | Yes | 53.67 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 32.02 |
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