Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 27 Dec 2025 and the low 0.1% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 2.5% on 1 Jan 2026. $3.39K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 36 points · 27 Dec 2025 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 492.05 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 218.84 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 149.78 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 115.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/msft-above-in-january-2026
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 77.98 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 73.95 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 67.82 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 50 |
| 16r0ob | Yes | 31.31 |
| hesure | Yes | 16 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
