Analytics
“Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $540 end of January?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of January?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 31 Jan 2026. $5.9K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 36 daily price points from Dec 27, 2025 UTC to Jan 31, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 50.5%); 23 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 83.7% of the loaded shares; 113 recent public fills from 96 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/msft-above-in-january-2026
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 36 points · 27 Dec 2025 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 368.85 |
| sociedad | Yes | 312.6 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 244 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 218.98 |
| onroad | Yes | 198.89 |
| endday | Yes | 172.69 |
| bianbaba | Yes | 146.4 |
| helpwt | Yes | 141.1 |
| superjanuary | Yes | 126.35 |
| weiw1 | Yes | 117.56 |