Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 26%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 74% on 2 Jan 2026 and the low 50% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 73% on 1 Jan 2026. $3.02K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 12:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 27 Dec 2025 – 2 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 40%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 2 Jan 2026 | 74.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 551 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 486.97 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 349 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 246.87 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 167 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 141 |
| 6trbfgw2qamkxo | Yes | 101.96 |
| Fibonacci79 | Yes | 57.47 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/msft-above-on-january-2-2026
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