Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 54%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 25 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 46% on 29 Jan 2026 and the low 11.5% on 27 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 46% on 29 Jan 2026. $451.69K traded over the market's life.
109 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 25 Jan 2026 – 29 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | 41.5% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | 46.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| UnderRSK | Yes | 20K |
| arminjk | Yes | 5K |
| GameOver | Yes | 3.33K |
| dellasus | Yes | 1.07K |
| cappos | Yes | 1K |
| 111122231 | Yes | 1K |
| Sisterhacker | Yes | 1K |
| ClaireVoyante | Yes | 1K |
| Ddd64737464 | Yes | 1K |
| Throughrain | Yes | 974.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Moonbirds's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Moonbirds doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/moonbirds-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
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