Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 52%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 5 Aug 2026, the highest close was 53% on 31 Jul 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 3 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 45.5% on 3 Aug 2026. $45.36K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 6, 1:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 5 Aug 2026, chart shows 40%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 49.5% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 52.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Winnerdinnerchickenjr | No | 40.08K |
| Bagwell306 | No | 1.89K |
| kyosuke666 | No | 312.08 |
| hirose2 | No | 204.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 4 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-sd-ari-2026-08-04
| eliottnm | No | 93.68 |
| khonikdev | No | 75.32 |
| losealotbegins | No | 60 |
| Jade Harbor E388 | No | 40.82 |
| slimjoe | No | 37.99 |
| 0xSeijuro | No | 30.71 |
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