The question, the state of play, and how it settles
Facts updated Aug 14, 2026 UTC
“Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Aug 12, 2026 UTC. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Timeline
Event starts
Aug 6, 2026 UTC
Trading closed
Aug 12, 2026 UTC
Now
Live observation
Event startsAug 6, 2026 UTC
Source Evidence
Evidence coverage
Items
2
Fetched
2
Latest
Aug 14, 2026 UTC
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Depth
Observed
Aug 14, 2026 UTC
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.
Market state
Closed
Order book
Captured book available
Observed Yes
100.0%
The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.
Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.
Rows loaded
Wallets
Top 10 share
Yes / No shares
The provider top-holder sample is currently unavailable.
Recent tapeLatest public market trades.
Trades loaded
0
Wallets
0
Loaded notional
$0
No recent public trade rows loaded.
Field guide
How to read this market
9 stops
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
01
Yes and No prices
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Last observed
Yes 100.0¢ · No 0.0¢
02
Implied probability
Price historyPolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Aug 13, 12:00 AM UTC
Points
1
Latest close
40.5%
Last bucket
Aug 13, 12:00 AM UTC
Top holdersLargest rows from the capped public top-holder endpoint; not venue-wide open interest.
Top-holder sample unavailable
The current provider holder request did not complete. No legacy holder rows are being substituted.
Event contextBest-effort grouped event lookup for this market.
What is the “Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)” market asking?
It asks whether the following will happen: Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?
At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to close on Aug 12, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 12 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
24h volume ($7.91K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Trading closed
Aug 12, 2026 UTC
NowLive observation
Outcomes
Chicago Cubs
100.0¢ · 100.0%
Washington Nationals
0.0¢ · 0.0%
Resolution rules
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 12 at 6:45 PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 3 or more runs.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington Nationals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Washington Nationals".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · 1440 min sampling · latest observation Aug 13, 12:00 AM UTC
Points
1
Move
0.0 pts
Range
40.5% - 40.5%
Aug 13, 12:00 AM UTC to Aug 13, 12:00 AM UTC
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Yes chance
100.0%
03
24h volume
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Traded in 24h
$7.91K
04
Liquidity
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
05
Spread
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
06
Top holders and concentration
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
07
Trade tape
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
08
Price history
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
09
Close and resolution
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
Closes
Aug 12, 2026 UTC
games
mlb
baseball
uncategorized
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 12 at 6:45PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.
This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
EvidenceMarket-scoped source, creator, and related-market links.
Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?
Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 14, 1:56 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.
Can I trade this market on Vultax?
No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-chc-wsh-2026-08-12) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.
