Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Sep 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 25% on 19 Aug 2023. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2023 to 16 Sep 2023, the highest close was 35% on 20 Aug 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 16 Sep 2023. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 15% on 29 Aug 2023. $14.29K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 17, 9:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 19 Aug 2023 – 16 Sep 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2023 | 25.0% |
| 16 Sep 2023 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Azure Tide E903 | Yes | 3.57K |
| lylert111 | Yes | 113.98 |
| LSaberX | Yes | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 18, 2023 and September 15, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger. For the purposes of this market, "offensive military operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc. Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/military-intervention-in-niger-by-september-15
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