Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 75%. Yes opened at 50% on 19 Sep 2023. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 19 Sep 2023 and the low 5% on 23 Oct 2023. Its largest one-day move was 45 points up, to 50% on 24 Oct 2023. $331 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 1, 6:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 19 Sep 2023 – 1 Nov 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2023 | 50.0% |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 25.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Retired-Mentat | No | 0.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between September 18, 2023 and October 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger. For the purposes of this market, "offensive military operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc. Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/military-intervention-in-niger-by-october-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
