Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 51.5%. Yes opened at 48% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 9 Feb 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 12 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 52.5% on 9 Feb 2026. $146.33K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 4 Mar 2026, chart shows 40%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 48.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 51.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| c4c4 | No | 12.36K |
| zhangwen1688 | No | 5.92K |
| kkpay19888 | No | 5.6K |
| Cannae | No | 5.02K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 3, 2026 If Deportivo Toluca FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution source: https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mex-pum-tol-2026-03-03
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