
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95%. Yes opened at 54% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 85 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 28 Mar 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 4% on 27 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 62.5% on 27 Dec 2025. $19.79K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 28 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 54.0% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 5.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| moneymemoneynow | Yes | 399.98 |
| daroghi | Yes | 30 |
| Golden Sphinx 09C0 | Yes | 17.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation. A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify. Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/meta-mango-model-released-by
| Yes |
| 14.29 |
| sadfsafd | Yes | 11.86 |
| raymon1 | Yes | 10 |
| bbbhgg | Yes | 4.99 |
| KerUUU | Yes | 1.2 |
| IrthBirth | No | 0.09 |
| R18helloworld | No | 0.09 |
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