Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 40%. Yes opened at 67% on 15 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2026 to 21 Oct 2026, the highest close was 74% on 18 Oct 2026 and the lowest 59% on 20 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 59% on 20 Oct 2026. $1.7K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 22, 8:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 15 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 55%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 67.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 60.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .brain. | Yes | 140.95 |
| cosmicsteaks | Yes | 97 |
| title1 | Yes | 56.39 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Meta’s headcount for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Meta’s official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings, and webcast transcripts/recordings. Note: if the specified company reports multiple variations of the specified metric for the relevant quarter, the first version of the metric found in the following hierarchy of earnings materials will be used. 1) Earnings Press Release 2) Earnings Investor Presentation 3) Regulatory Filings 4) Transcripts or recordings of Earnings webcast.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/meta-headcount-above-in-q3
| riitmo | Yes | 14 |
| Coral Beacon 7E5B | Yes | 6 |
| Tomdo | Yes | 3 |
| UpTheStairs | No | 0.91 |
| rubby1337 | Yes | 0.91 |
| Neon Oracle A8A9 | Yes | 0.62 |
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