Megaquake in September?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$89.6K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 4 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 23.5% on 4 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 6% on 5 Sep 2024. $89.56K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 2:16 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 4 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Sep 2024	23.5%
1 Oct 2024	0.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
thomseb	Yes	170
GillesYapiYapo	Yes	100
testorrrr-testing-mc-testfacey	Yes	16
patio	Yes	14.29

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between September 2 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until October 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.