Megaquake in June?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$141.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 3 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 3 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 6.5% on 3 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jul 2025. $141.46K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 3 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Jun 2025	6.5%
1 Jul 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
beautifulspoon	Yes	1.28K
aboss	Yes	499.99
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	488
krusty111	Yes	287.74

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between June 2, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.