Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 154 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 7.5% on 9 Jun 2026. $88.32K traded over the market's life.
70 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 3:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 154 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 44.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| amused85 | Yes | 10.56K |
| PnW | Yes | 4.56K |
| Forthright-Inequality | Yes | 3.11K |
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/megaquake-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 1.84K |
| DEGENKHAN | Yes | 593.47 |
| namegune | Yes | 400.09 |
| FatPika | Yes | 222 |
| Mean-Recommendation | Yes | 200 |
| CanadaG00se | Yes | 190.15 |
| accelarated | Yes | 185 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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