Megaquake before May?

Resolved

No, settled May 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$75.3K

Resolved

Settled

May 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8% on 27 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Mar 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 8.5% on 30 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. $75.26K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 12:22 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Mar 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Mar 2025	8.0%
1 May 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
cccv	Yes	8.81K
Kondratiev	Yes	1.91K
aboss	Yes	480.89
bullet69	Yes	28.5

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between March 26 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.