Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 10 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 8.1% on 13 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.6 points down, to 2.5% on 14 Oct 2025. $29.1K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 3.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.32K |
| Barghouthi | Yes | 526.96 |
| Detailed-Mouse | Yes | 232.01 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 218.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marwan Barghouti is released from Israeli state custody by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Barghouti is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Barghouti is released via pardon, commutation, parole, exchange, or any other mechanism that results in him leaving Israeli state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Barghouti to any other location of custody (e.g., a different prison, a military facility, a court, or a hospital within the correctional or security system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as court appearances, medical treatment under guard, participation in negotiations, or legislative testimony, while still under custody, will not count as a release. A transfer to the custody of another authority where Barghouti remains detained will not count as a release; only non-custodial status counts as "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/marwan-barghouti-released-by-october-31
| NotNow | Yes | 90.91 |
| makingmoneyp | Yes | 66.67 |
| Friendly-South | Yes | 62.5 |
| Tall-Spray | Yes | 47.3 |
| Electric-Pentagon | Yes | 42.55 |
| Aposide | Yes | 33.75 |
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