Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 36.5%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 36.5% on 22 Mar 2026 and the low 13% on 21 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 36.5% on 22 Mar 2026.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 23, 11:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 22 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 28.5% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | 36.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dankwizart420 | No | 251.92 |
| mdgc | No | 150 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 7 |
| bjprolo | No | 5 |
| jhbjsahed | No | 1.27 |
| sadefbgjkeusw | No | 1.27 |
| ming100wan | No | 1.14 |
| Misty Tide D02D | No | 1.1 |
| Lavincey | No | 0.9 |
| R24Rssa3 | Yes | 0.11 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 22, 2026, 12:00AM ET and March 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-space-weather-event-this-week-march-22-28
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