Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 14 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 203 daily closes on record from 14 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 11.5% on 3 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. $187.62K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 203 points, 14 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sy12 | Yes | 55.63K |
| Wheels | Yes | 6.77K |
| Zilivanili | Yes | 5.88K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between June 9 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2026
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 3.37K |
| banan | Yes | 3.26K |
| 0xffffffff | Yes | 2.13K |
| plzsthhappen | Yes | 1.92K |
| echoforma | Yes | 1.09K |
| mttkonan | Yes | 819.19 |
| anansi777 | Yes | 483.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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