Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 2.6% on 6 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 2.8% on 11 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Apr 2025. $11.52K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 4:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 Mar 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2025 | 2.6% |
| 1 Apr 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gambler5000 | Yes | 1.41K |
| Royal Falcon A356 | Yes | 900 |
| rAT124 | Yes | 34.76 |
| Dental-Package | Yes | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucy Guo, CEO of Passes, is arrested between March 4, 2025, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lucy-guo-arrested-before-april
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