Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 3.1 points from 11.1% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 11.1% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 8% on 30 Oct 2026.
26°C ranks third of the 11 outcomes in “Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 31?”. 25°C leads at 75.5%; 24°C is at 14%.
$1.58K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.68K since listing. The order book holds $1.69K, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 43 trades, $106.91 bought Yes and $436.03 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Bilberry with 579 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 665. Ten wallets hold 83% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 11.1% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 665.22 |
| Bilberry | Yes | 578.98 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | No | 303.86 |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Official listing:
| unionway | Yes | 100 |
| CreamCream1215 | Yes | 95 |
| hansonjc | Yes | 83.92 |
| mew3 | Yes | 70 |
| 0xSPBB | No | 59.93 |
| woff1236578 | Yes | 57.88 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yes | 47.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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