The question, the state of play, and how it settles
Facts updated 5d ago
“LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports - Game 4 Winner” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Sep 8, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 hourly price points from Sep 8, 2026 to Sep 8, 2026 (Yes between 36.5% and 49.5%); 9 recent public fills from 4 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Timeline
Event starts
Sep 8, 2026
Trading closed
Sep 8, 2026
Now
Live observation
Source Evidence
Evidence coverage
Items
2
Fetched
2
Latest
5d ago
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Depth
Observed
5d ago
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.
Market state
Closed
Order book
Captured book available
Observed Yes
50.0%
The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.
Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.
Rows loaded
Wallets
Top 10 share
Yes / No shares
The provider top-holder sample is currently unavailable.
Recent tapeLatest public market trades.
Trades loaded
9
Wallets
4
Loaded notional
$74.3
NightBirds buy at 50.0%
Field guide
How to read this market
9 stops
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
01
Yes and No prices
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Last observed
Yes 50.0¢ · No 50.0¢
02
Implied probability
Price historyPolymarket CLOB price history · 360 min sampling · latest observation Sep 8, 6:00 PM
Points
2
Latest close
49.5%
Last bucket
Sep 8, 6:00 PM
Top holdersLargest rows from the capped public top-holder endpoint; not venue-wide open interest.
Top-holder sample unavailable
The current provider holder request did not complete. No legacy holder rows are being substituted.
Event contextBest-effort grouped event lookup for this market.
LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs
Uncategorized • 37 linked markets
More in this event
LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs
What is the “LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports - Game 4 Winner” market asking?
It asks whether the following will happen: LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports - Game 4 Winner It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “LoL: NightBirds vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?
At the last observation Yes traded at 50.0¢ and No at 50.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 50.0% for Yes and 50.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?
Trading is scheduled to close on Sep 8, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between NightBirds and EXILE esports in the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "NightBirds" if NightBirds win the match against EXILE esports. This market will resolve to "EXILE esports" if EXILE esports win the match against NightBirds. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
24h volume ($148.5) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Event starts
Sep 8, 2026
Trading closedSep 8, 2026
NowLive observation
Outcomes
NightBirds
50.0¢ · 50.0%
EXILE Esports
50.0¢ · 50.0%
Resolution rules
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between NightBirds and EXILE esports in the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "NightBirds" if NightBirds win the match against EXILE esports.
This market will resolve to "EXILE esports" if EXILE esports win the match against NightBirds.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · 360 min sampling · latest observation Sep 8, 6:00 PM
Points
2
Move
+13 pts
Range
36.5% - 49.5%
Sep 8, 12:00 PM to Sep 8, 6:00 PM
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Yes chance
50.0%
03
24h volume
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Traded in 24h
$148.5
04
Liquidity
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
05
Spread
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
06
Top holders and concentration
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
07
Trade tape
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Loaded fills
9 fills · 4 wallets · $74.3
08
Price history
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
2 hourly points
36.5% to 49.5% · +13 pts
09
Close and resolution
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
Closes
Sep 8, 2026
esportsleague-of-legendsgamessportsuncategorized
This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between NightBirds and EXILE esports in the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "NightBirds" if NightBirds win the match against EXILE esports.
This market will resolve to "EXILE esports" if EXILE esports win the match against NightBirds.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
EvidenceMarket-scoped source, creator, and related-market links.
Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?
Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 9, 5:26 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.
Can I trade this market on Vultax?
No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/lol-nbs-exe-2026-09-08-game4) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.
