Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.5%. Yes opened at 62.5% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 57 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 74.5% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 9.5% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 9.5% on 31 Dec 2025. $9.58M traded over the market's life.
587 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 62.5% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| trumpisreal | Yes | 111.58K |
| oblivioncapital | Yes | 86.79K |
| 0xraphael | Yes | 61.63K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $3,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 51.57K |
| gokutokyo | Yes | 49.26K |
| SeerOfOdds | Yes | 41.82K |
| metacharsiu | Yes | 34.81K |
| GGSSS | Yes | 29K |
| tiago | Yes | 28.9K |
| avatar-trader | Yes | 23.26K |
