Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 21% on 22 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 102 daily closes on record from 22 Sep 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 21% on 22 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 10% on 12 Oct 2025. $903.4K traded over the market's life.
204 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 102 points, 22 Sep 2025 – 31 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2025 | 21.0% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SeerOfOdds | Yes | 17.95K |
| Short-Term-Curve | Yes | 10.93K |
| Crimson Pulse 94A4 | Yes | 10K |
This is a market on Lighter FDV
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 8.19K |
| GMLighter | Yes | 7.56K |
| bluematter | Yes | 6.28K |
| bnm8888 | Yes | 6.01K |
| alll | Yes | 4.44K |
| belivve | Yes | 3.95K |
| capnjack | Yes | 3.88K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
