Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84.3%. Yes opened at 12% on 14 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 14 Dec 2025 to 30 Dec 2025, the highest close was 15.8% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 21 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 15.8% on 30 Dec 2025. $2.3M traded over the market's life.
446 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 14 Dec 2025 – 30 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | 12.0% |
| 30 Dec 2025 | 15.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 925.54K |
| cryptoposol | Yes | 87.74K |
| hollyber | Yes | 70K |
| Gfoxx | Yes | 55.51K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the next date Lighter performs an airdrop on. If Lighter launches a memecoin and performs an airdrop of that token within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Lighter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be
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