Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 18.5%. Yes opened at 76% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 16 Dec 2025, the highest close was 87.5% on 15 Dec 2025 and the lowest 76% on 10 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 81.5% on 16 Dec 2025. $10.87K traded over the market's life.
109 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 18, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 16 Dec 2025, chart shows 70%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 76.0% |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 81.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| brickwall | Yes | 786.41 |
| rgcggg | Yes | 576.17 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Prudent-Excellence | Yes | 111.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
As of market creation, Lennar Corp is estimated to release earnings on December 16, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Lennar Corp's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lennar Corp reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Lennar Corp releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/len-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-12-16-2025-2pt22
| tun4iiik | Yes | 108.6 |
| 9735 | Yes | 100 |
| tiancs | Yes | 100 |
| Vvgod | Yes | 60 |
| daleloko | Yes | 58.2 |
| vicgc10 | Yes | 53.97 |
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