Analytics
Resolved Virginia on 4 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Virginia at 99.9%. The Virginia side opened at 66% on 9 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 57 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2025 to 4 Dec 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 6 Nov 2025 and the lowest 66% on 9 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 80% on 10 Oct 2025. $48.03K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 1:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Virginia price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 9 Oct 2025 – 4 Dec 2025
| Observed | Virginia price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2025 | 66.0% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Marketpoll | New Jersey | 4.9K |
| TheRedChip | New Jersey | 4.38K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | New Jersey | 872 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Virginia" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 Virginia Governor election is greater than the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New Jersey Governor election. This market will resolve to "New Jersey" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New Jersey election is greater than the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 Virginia Governor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican candidates’ final vote shares in the respective election. If the margin of victory is identical or if results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for conducting the election in each state.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/larger-margin-of-victory-virginia-or-new-jersey-governor-345
| New Jersey |
| 514.21 |
| TimeTraveler | New Jersey | 484.22 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | New Jersey | 225 |
| RB-79K_BALL | New Jersey | 100 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | New Jersey | 66 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | New Jersey | 64 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | New Jersey | 57 |
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