Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 9 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 9 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 6.5% on 10 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $31.21K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 9 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MareBets | Yes | 752.48 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 395 |
| Hidden-Primary | Yes | 272.81 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 216 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kristi-noem-out-as-secretary-of-homeland-security-by
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 192.93 |
| Rural-Sleuth | Yes | 159.39 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 131 |
| hongtashan | Yes | 127.08 |
| shiwaz | Yes | 126.72 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 71 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
