Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 7 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 7 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.1 points down, to 3.4% on 8 Mar 2026. $58.25K traded over the market's life.
81 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 1:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 7 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | 11.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Volku | Yes | 3.65K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 830.04 |
| MontyAplaca | No | 299.99 |
| Rash-Amber | Yes | 251.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq
| AFOVOS | Yes | 250.61 |
| NGNG | Yes | 240 |
| Harmful-Rosemary | Yes | 147.06 |
| Kawachi | Yes | 126.92 |
| FerryTayle | Yes | 124.15 |
| oc1984 | Yes | 111.11 |
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