Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2025 to 12 Apr 2025, the highest close was 46.5% on 2 Apr 2025 and the lowest 2.5% on 12 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 11% on 8 Apr 2025. $11.24K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 13, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 2 Apr 2025 – 12 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2025 | 46.5% |
| 12 Apr 2025 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CassieKittyKillCam | No | 0.04 |
| Jimblonie | No | 0.01 |
| JDULIA | No | 0.01 |
| andy29 | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is released from custody by April 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Garcia is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Garcia to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kilmar-abrego-garcia-released-from-custody-by-next-friday
| Karekken | No | 0.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
