Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2025 to 1 Sep 2025, the highest close was 43.5% on 27 Aug 2025 and the lowest 2.9% on 31 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 9% on 28 Aug 2025. $403.28 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 1, 7:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 43.5% |
| 1 Sep 2025 | 2.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| qwertzu | Yes | 49.99 |
| GasTransFreaks | Yes | 38.46 |
| Cewrgdf | Yes | 12.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is released from custody by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Garcia is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Garcia to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kilmar-abrego-garcia-released-from-custody-by-august-31
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