Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 67%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 10 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 10 Feb 2026 to 12 Feb 2026, the highest close was 67% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 52.5% on 10 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 62% on 11 Feb 2026. $20.44K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 14, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 10 Feb 2026 – 12 Feb 2026, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2026 | 52.5% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | 67.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dependable-Scenery | No | 1.16K |
| Critical-Zone | No | 1K |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 374 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 282 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/khamenei-public-appearance-by
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