Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 21% on 3 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 211 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2024 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 37% on 27 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 20.2% on 19 Jun 2025. $8.13M traded over the market's life.
541 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 211 points, 3 Dec 2024 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2024 | 21.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chyba | Yes | 71.46K |
| meepmeepmf | Yes | 42.94K |
| MakeEthereumGreatAgain | Yes | 40.73K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran of for any length of time between December 2, 2024, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Khamenei has remained Supreme Leader for the entire duration without interruption. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by the government of Iran, however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-june-30
| lighthousecapital | Yes | 40.2K |
| Fesfouss | Yes | 34.63K |
| Keen Atlas 80C0 | Yes | 30.19K |
| CrouchingTiger | Yes | 28.42K |
| mazi-go-mazi | Yes | 21.41K |
| meep | Yes | 20.83K |
| Triplebets | Yes | 15.65K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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