
Resolved No on 18 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.5% on 9 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 9 Aug 2026 to 18 Aug 2026, the highest close was 0.6% on 10 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 15 Aug 2026. $550.94 traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 18, 6:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 9 Aug 2026 – 18 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2026 | 0.5% |
| 18 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 879.65 |
| merod | Yes | 217 |
| korda77 | Yes | 199.49 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/khamenei-of-tweets-august-11-august-18-2026
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 100 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 99.99 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| menthe2 | Yes | 49.99 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 19.97 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
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