
Resolved No on 17 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 20% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 20% on 22 Apr 2026 and the low 0.4% on 14 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 13% on 23 Apr 2026. $637.1K traded over the market's life.
90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 18, 6:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 17 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 20.0% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Tender-Series | Yes | 221.9K |
| b723smith | Yes | 118.66K |
| push-push | Yes | 81.46K |
| bosch49 | Yes | 21.51K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kevin-warsh-cuts-rates-at-first-fed-meeting
| Jumbo-Tortellini | Yes | 14.84K |
| shockrate | Yes | 6.55K |
| Niminim1 | Yes | 6.08K |
| Speedy-Reamer | Yes | 4.6K |
| Coltaine1 | Yes | 4.38K |
| Scaly-Assessment | Yes | 4.16K |
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