Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 4.8 points from 5% when the market opened on 20 Aug 2026.
Across the 67 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 5.2% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Oct 2026. The current quote, 0.3%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 0.3% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.4%; a month before, 0.9%.
$600 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.14K since listing. The order book holds $1.78K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 61 trades, $29.73 bought Yes and $2.04K bought No; the largest was a $1.39K buy of No at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 480 shares; the largest No position is balerinacapuchina with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 84% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 5.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| balerinacapuchina | No | 1.41K |
| 2B9S | Yes | 480 |
| voltzbeliever | Yes | 400 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Ye is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kanye-west-arrested-in-russia-by-october-31
| Attached-Prairie |
| Yes |
| 325 |
| abccbaq | No | 181.6 |
| JumperChip | Yes | 155.49 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| kinderSman | No | 110 |
| Ersicolus | Yes | 100.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
