Analytics
Resolved Wisconsin on 29 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Wisconsin at 99.2%. The Wisconsin side opened at 72.5% on 24 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2024 to 29 Nov 2024, the highest close was 99.3% on 10 Nov 2024 and the lowest 72.5% on 24 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 95% on 7 Nov 2024. $40.98K traded over the market's life.
165 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 30, 10:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Wisconsin price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 24 Oct 2024 – 29 Nov 2024, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Wisconsin price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2024 | 72.5% |
| 29 Nov 2024 | 99.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| OrderbookDestroyr9000 | Georgia | 3.23K |
| Ludik97 | Georgia | 365.88 |
| TRUMP24 | Georgia | 364.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Wisconsin” if Kamala Harris's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Wisconsin is higher than her margin of victory winning the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve to "Georgia” if Kamala Harris's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Georgia is higher than her margin of victory winning the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes received by each Kamala Harris and the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in Wisconsin and Georgia each for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If Kamala Harris loses both states, this market will resolve based off the state in which she had a smaller margin of defeat between herself and the first place candidate. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once both relevant states have certified the vote. If a recount is initiated in either state before certification, this market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamalas-margin-of-victory-higher-in-wisconsin-or-georgia
| Georgia |
| 184.21 |
| Nantsi | Georgia | 142.86 |
| jujumane | Georgia | 100 |
| TheUnfolding | Georgia | 52.63 |
| Hetschler | Georgia | 47.62 |
| mac2025 | Georgia | 47.62 |
| Zagros | Georgia | 23.81 |
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