Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Sep 27, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$54.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 27, 2024 UTC

Topic roomOil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 27 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 81%. Yes opened at 50% on 25 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2024 to 27 Sep 2024, the highest close was 81% on 27 Sep 2024 and the lowest 50% on 25 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 81% on 27 Sep 2024. $54.72K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 28, 3:06 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 25 Sep 2024 – 27 Sep 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Sep 2024	50.0%
27 Sep 2024	81.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
K87	Yes	14.93
potdaylabbi1987	Yes	0.1
keril	Yes	0.1
clifacdoycon1984	No	0.09

10 of 22 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 55.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on September 27, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 27 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for September 27 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 27.