Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 62.5%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 31 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2024 to 6 Nov 2024, the highest close was 44% on 3 Nov 2024 and the lowest 29.5% on 31 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 35% on 5 Nov 2024. $424.62K traded over the market's life.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 8:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 31 Oct 2024 – 6 Nov 2024, chart shows 25%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2024 | 29.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 37.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GambleOnDemocracy | Yes | 10K |
| SecretFourteenthKey | Yes | 9.88K |
| JRB9 | Yes | 6.18K |
| arnri | Yes | 3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins every Rust Belt swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market considers the following states as "Rust Belt swing states": Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamala-rust-belt-swing-state-sweep
| BrickGardenTile | Yes | 1.55K |
| HALFUNITS | Yes | 825.16 |
| Infinitus | Yes | 500 |
| ClassicSilence | Yes | 463.41 |
| mulldog | Yes | 372.09 |
| theenighttalker | Yes | 270.27 |
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