Kamala positive favorability by Friday?

politicsResolved

No, settled Sep 15, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$70.6K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 15, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 15 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 39% on 10 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2024 to 15 Sep 2024, the highest close was 39% on 10 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.7% on 15 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 5% on 13 Sep 2024. $70.63K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 16, 12:36 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 10 Sep 2024 – 15 Sep 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Sep 2024	39.0%
15 Sep 2024	0.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
frx	Yes	246.19
nobs	Yes	120
AFa5	Yes	10.87
monkchi	Yes	1.49

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorable rating for any day between September 9 (inclusive) and September 13, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Harris's favorable rating must be higher than her unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after September 13, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by September 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.