Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.5%. Yes opened at 54% on 29 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 29 Aug 2024 to 7 Sep 2024, the highest close was 65% on 2 Sep 2024 and the lowest 3.5% on 7 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 12.5% on 6 Sep 2024. $79.57K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 8, 7:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 29 Aug 2024 – 7 Sep 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2024 | 54.0% |
| 7 Sep 2024 | 3.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zorosorry | Yes | 200 |
| FlavourSavor | Yes | 128.33 |
| Meta2024 | Yes | 59 |
| John225 | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorable rating for any day between August 27 (inclusive) and September 6, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Harris's favorable rating must be higher than her unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve once the first data point after September 6, 2024, is published. If no such data point is available by September 13, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'No.'" Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamala-harris-positive-favorability-by-next-friday
| simihk | Yes | 8 |
| C4Flame | Yes | 6.41 |
| manykyan | Yes | 0.16 |
| slatecover1970 | No | 0.08 |
| vadowatzvard1988 | No | 0.08 |
| seoboxtici1983 | No | 0.05 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
