Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday?

Resolved

No, settled Oct 19, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$130.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 19, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2024 to 19 Oct 2024, the highest close was 34.5% on 12 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 19 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 7% on 18 Oct 2024. $130.23K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 20, 6:06 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 19 Oct 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Oct 2024	34.5%
19 Oct 2024	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Distorted-Wont	Yes	80
Ancient-Haven	Yes	30.66
br0	Yes	15
Fengl	Yes	4.48

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 18, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 18 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 18 is available by October 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous datapoint to October 18. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Kamala Harris winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Harris 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.