Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 5 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 5 Oct 2024 and the low 1.6% on 12 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 12.5% on 10 Oct 2024. $107.35K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 13, 5:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 5 Oct 2024 – 12 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2024 | 50.0% |
| 12 Oct 2024 | 1.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Tide 2B3C | Yes | 200 |
| Lobsto | Yes | 34.88 |
| cox | Yes | 34.48 |
| Threaded | No | 1 |
| highrisker | No | 0.17 |
| Female-Sombrero | Yes | 0.1 |
| Ghordhe | Yes | 0.09 |
| feiskiningrov1977 | No | 0.08 |
| kamactesofch1970 | No | 0.08 |
| jaspal | No | 0.08 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 56% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on October 11, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast when "Win probability" is selected, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue trend line for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 11 as soon as the next datapoint become available. This market may not resolve until the next datapoint is available. If no datapoint for October 11 is available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to October 11. Please note the resolution refers to the odds of Kamala Harris winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Harris 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 will NOT be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamala-harris-538-odds-55-on-friday
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