
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 57% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 57% on 3 Dec 2025 and the lowest 2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 13.5% on 4 Dec 2025. $6.31K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 57.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 2.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 300 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 88 |
| cucaiqiao | Yes | 67.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A Nevada federal judge ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are subject to Nevada gaming rules, rather than exclusively subject to the federal jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/kalshi-is-subject-nevada-gaming-rules-judge-finds-2025-11-26/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kalshi stops listing new sports event contracts in the state of Nevada by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Stops” refers to any halt—whether permanent or temporary—in Kalshi’s listing of new sports event contracts that is intentional and not simply a result of routine operations. Delays caused by gaps between sporting events, technical problems, or other unintentional factors will not qualify. An official announcement from Kalshi that it will stop listing new sports event contracts in Nevada will suffice to resolve this market, even if the announced stop is not yet implemented. A consensus of credible reporting indicating that Kalshi has stopped listing new sports event contracts in Nevada will also suffice. If Kalshi announces the removal of, or is reported by a consensus of credible media to have removed, all sports event contracts from their platform in Nevada, this will count as a qualifying stop. A stop limited to a specific subset of sports event contracts (e.g. prop bets or parlays), that does not include contracts on the win/lose outcomes of sporting events, will not qualify. The primary sources of resolution for this market will be official information from Kalshi; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kalshi-stops-listing-sports-event-contracts-in-nevada-in-2025
| Yes |
| 66.74 |
| jishangjing | Yes | 65.48 |
| sitaoei | Yes | 62.92 |
| nuozhiba | Yes | 61.36 |
| yanpaozi | Yes | 60.67 |
| youganqie | Yes | 59.91 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 58 |
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