Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jun 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 8 Jun 2024. Before it settled, the high was 36.5% on 8 Jun 2024 and the low 0.8% on 15 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 21% on 9 Jun 2024. $14.84K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 4:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 8 Jun 2024 – 15 Jun 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jun 2024 | 36.5% |
| 15 Jun 2024 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sonnahiroshi | Yes | 525.37 |
| MFGHCV | Yes | 0.07 |
| truthteller | Yes | 0.06 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction (see https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/judge-trumps-hush-money-case-raises-questions-social-media-post-appear-rcna156128). This market will resolve to "Yes" if a formal investigation into the posted Facebook comment is announced by June 14, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The formal investigation must be from the the Judge or his office/representatives. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/judge-launches-investigation-into-facebook-comment
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
