Analytics
Yes is at 4.4%, down 16 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 20 May 2026.
Across the 158 daily closes on record from 20 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 21 May 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 9 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.9%; a month before, 5.1%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 23% on 23 Jul 2026.
$74.98K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $21.85K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.89K bought Yes and $8K bought No; the largest was a $1.52K buy of No at 91.8¢.
The largest Yes position is Crimson Falcon B4CD with 2.6K shares; the largest No position is Basquetipster with 5.6K. Ten wallets hold 60.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 158 points, 20 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 20.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Basquetipster | No | 5.56K |
| pkz | No | 4.74K |
| Crimson Falcon B4CD | Yes | 2.57K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026, or until the specified individual is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point the investigation or any resulting criminal case against the specified individual formally ends without any possibility of a jail/prison sentence being issued, including due to no charges being filed, charges being dismissed, an acquittal, or any other situation in which no judgment is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-sentenced-to-prison
| Bruised-Blackfish-Toot |
| Yes |
| 1.46K |
| SALADITO | Yes | 1.38K |
| Aldama | Yes | 1.1K |
| Attractive-Headrest | Yes | 1.03K |
| Till1986 | Yes | 1.02K |
| fpfpfpfpfpfpfp | No | 965.06 |
| DirtySaunez | Yes | 838.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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