Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 7.5% on 2 Sep 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $23.06K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 129 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 7.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CriolloMan | Yes | 1.33K |
| Whome | Yes | 1K |
| PCMTest | Yes | 500 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/john-bolton-in-jail-in-2025
| Yes |
| 269 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 253.99 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 222 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 177.24 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 174 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 145 |
| cghvjhub | Yes | 105.84 |
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