Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 12% on 17 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 17 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 12% on 17 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 1.8% on 18 Dec 2025. $11.42K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 17 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2025 | 12.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ProbablyPomPom | Yes | 200 |
| Jerry12212 | Yes | 142.86 |
| Bulky-Millimeter | Yes | 111.11 |
| RW185 | No | 100.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jimmy-lai-released-by-january-31
| Back-Completion | No | 99.6 |
| wylzub | Yes | 66.67 |
| Flawed-Warren | Yes | 52.91 |
| SUKAHLUHA | Yes | 15 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 9.98 |
| Evador | Yes | 5.02 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
