Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 3 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2024 to 9 Nov 2024, the highest close was 11% on 4 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 9 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5.3 points down, to 2.9% on 19 Oct 2024. $71.92K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 10, 3:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 3 Oct 2024 – 9 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2024 | 7.5% |
| 9 Nov 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mzc | Yes | 499.98 |
| Predictoooor | Yes | 406.14 |
| lorenzdavid | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if J.D. Vances's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating for any day between Oct 2 (inclusive) and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vance's favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line and the orange "unfavorable" the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after November 4, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-positive-favorability-before-the-election
| Yes |
| 22.22 |
| fasthumarti1979 | No | 0.5 |
| deminsani1984 | No | 0.41 |
| khalepasna1989 | No | 0.39 |
| Dirty-Hyphenation | No | 0.3 |
| ambalwindke1977 | No | 0.26 |
| Sammiss | Yes | 0.06 |
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